Revisiting the Santana Trade

With the recent call-up of right-hander Kevin Mulvey, now seems like a really good time to re-examine the Santana trade.  Here is a look at what the Twins got:

Carlos Gomez:

2008:  .258/.296/.360/.657 OPS   2.3 WAR
2009:  .253/.291/.358/.649 OPS   0.1 WAR

Gomez's horrible numbers at the plate are sort of neutralized by his defense.  With a career 23.5 UZR in center, he is one of the top defensive CFs in the league.  If he could just learn to hit, he would be one of the better all-around players in the league, much like Grady Sizemore.  One of the things Go-Go really needed to work on was plate discipline, and he has indeed improved in this respect.  Last season, he swung at 36.8 % of pitches outside the strike zone, while this season he has only chased 27.6%.  Thus, his BB/K ratio has subsequently improved from 0.18 to 0.36.  So far, he has little to show for his improved plate discipline, but he hasn't seen much playing time this season with the crowded outfield situation, either.  It's doubtful that Go-Go will ever develop much power, but given his age and a continued improvement in plate discipline, it's not unreasonable to expect league-average production from him eventually.

Philip Humber:

2008: 

Twins:     4.36 ERA   1.371 WHIP   1.20 K/BB    4.6 K/9   3.9 BB/9   11.2 IP
Rochester:  4.56 ERA   1.423 WHIP   2.16 K/BB   7.0 K/9   3.2 BB/9  136.1 IP

2009: 

Twins:     12.45 ERA   3.231 WHIP   1.33 K/BB   8.3 K/9   6.2 BB/9    4.2 IP
Rochester:   5.86 ERA   1.575 WHIP   1.97 K/BB   7.2 K/9   3.7 BB/9    73.2IP

Humber was once the Mets' top pitching-prospect, until he was sidelined with Tommy-John surgery in 2005.  He's been a mediocre starter for the Red Wings, and at this point (he's 26) doesn't project to be more than a long-reliever in the major leagues.  Not only have walks been an issue for Humber at the major-league level, he's also had trouble keeping the ball in the park (his HR/FB% is 18.2).  The fact that nobody claimed him when the Twins put him on waivers earlier this season (and that they were willing to risk losing him this way), probably says a lot about his value.

Kevin Mulvey:

2008:  3.77 ERA   1.351 WHIP   2.52 K/BB   7.4 K/9   2.9 BB/9   148.0 IP
2009:  3.93 ERA   1.427 WHIP   2.13 K/BB   7.1 K/9  3.3 BB/9   103.0 IP

Mulvey has spent the past two seasons as a starter in Rochester, and though he's been pretty successful, he's struggled to pitch effectively on a consistent basis.  Still, his K/9 rate is good enough to suggest that he might make it as a fifth starter or middle reliever in the major leagues.  If anything, a good performance with the big club would probably increase his trade value should the team dangle him in an effort to upgrade the bullpen or middle infield.

Deolis Guerra:

2008 (Ft. Myers):  5.47 ERA   1.608 WHIP   1.00 K/BB   4.9 K/9  4.9 BB/9   130.0 IP

2009:

Ft. Myers:   4.69 ERA   1.390 WHIP   2.28 K/BB   5.9 K/9   2.6 BB/9   86.1 IP
New Britain:   5.59 ERA  1.655 WHIP   2.67 K/BB   7.4 K/9   2.8 BB/9   9.2 IP

Guerra is the youngest and most intriguing of the three pitching prospects the Twins got in the deal. The fact that he's spent four years in A-ball isn't particularly inspiring, but he's still only 20 years old and is quite young even for that level.  Guerra was recently promoted to AA, despite his poor numbers, in the hopes that a change in scenery will do him some good.  It's unlikely that he will ever develop into an ace, and it's questionable whether he will ever even reach the major leagues, but it's also too soon to give up on him just yet.

And here's what the Mets got:

Johan Santana:   2.53 ERA   3.83 xFIP   1.15 WHIP   3.27 K/BB   4.8 WAR

Note that I am only including his 2008 numbers.  I did this because, let's face it, his leaving was a foregone conclusion.  There is no way the Twins were going to re-sign Johan, they would undoubtedly have been outbid for his services by one of the larger-market teams.  This is also why it's not really accurate to say the Mets fleeced the Twins in this deal:  the Twins were going to lose Santana anyway, and the Mets gave up a ton of prospects as well as a ton of money to acquire him.  Obviously, the Mets have come out on top so far, but dealing a superstar near free agency is always an iffy proposition and teams rarely get an adequate haul in return.  It's not like the Delmon Young trade, in which the Twins gave up two very talented young players who were under their control for the next several years and got three barely replacement-level players in return (and the centerpiece of that deal is considerably below replacement-level).  That is highway robbery.

Now, one can certainly make the case that the Twins didn't have to trade Santana, even though losing him was inevitable.  It's true that the Twins might have been better off with the additional draft picks they would have gotten from whatever team he eventually signed with.  The team almost certainly would've made the playoffs with Johan anchoring the rotation last year, though I doubt very much they actually would have won the World Series (having an unusually-high BA with RISP only gets you so far).  But from all accounts, Bill Smith was left with little choice but to deal the superstar, since Santana wanted his contract situation resolved before the start of the season.  He didn't want to have to endure the media circus and speculation that dogged Torii Hunter during his final season with the team, which is perfectly understandable.  He also made it clear that he had no intention of being a rent-a-player (like C.C. Sabathia last year) and since he had a full no-trade clause in his contract, waiting for a better deal to come along at the trade deadline would have been out of the question. 

Smith was in his first season as GM after Terry Ryan abruptly resigned, and was stuck with the unenviable task of trading the staff ace.  As far as whether or not they would have gotten a better package from the Yankees or the Red Sox, it's possible.  However, we don't really know what offers were on the table, and if either team were really serious about trading for him.  It sounds to me like Boston and New York were willing to wait for Santana to enter free agency, rather than lose their top prospects in a trade.  If both teams were serious about dealing for Santana, though, and players like Ellsbury, Lester, Hughes and Cabrera really were on the table, then Smith likely made a huge mistake in not pulling the trigger.